Wednesday, January 18, 2012

Hot! 2011 Bowl Projections

Rivals.com StaffThe critics who blast away at the bowl system for rewarding mediocrity could be absolutely gleeful this fall. The reason? There are 70 bowl spots, and heading into the final six weeks of the season, there is a legitimate question about whether all the spots can be filled.

If the Big 12, Pac-12 and SEC each get two teams in the BCS, those leagues might not be able to fill all their bowl slots. In our bowl projections this week, for instance, we have the Pac-12 getting two teams into the BCS and coming up two short of filling all its slots.

The Mountain West has four slots. If Boise State makes it into the BCS, the league could end up with one of its slots unfilled. New Mexico and Colorado State , which would give the Cowboys six wins. But two of the Cowboys' victories are over FCS teams, and only one of those counts toward bowl eligibility. Thus, the league and its bowl partners might end up in the position of having to petition the NCAA to waive the six-win rule for Wyoming. The NCAA turned down a similar appeal from last season.

The WAC has three tie-ins, but just two league teams currently have winning records. In addition, plays 13 games, which means the Bulldogs have to get to seven wins to become bowl-eligible.

What could result, then, is a bowl bonanza for the Sun Belt and Mid-American conferences. The MAC has three tie-ins, but figures to have as many as seven or eight bowl-eligible teams. The Sun Belt has two tie-ins and should have at least three eligible teams. All those open slots have to be filled by someone, so all those "extra" MAC and Sun Belt teams could find postseason homes.

Of course, we're still in October, these are just projections and there are myriad teams that could pull upsets and finish with the needed six wins.

Then again, it could be a wild scramble among bowl officials as December draws near. Imagine, if you will, the possibility that Eastern Michigan has its choice of bowls. Eastern Michigan, which is 5-3, has been to one bowl in its history, in 1987, but could be a sought-after team this postseason.

Thus, in that vein, here's how we see the postseason shaking out.

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A few notes about these bowl projections :

There again are 35 bowls, though there have been some name changes.

A bowl's tie-in with a league doesn't necessarily mean it will get the third-, fourth-, fifth-, etc., place team from the league; rather, it means it gets the third, fourth, fifth, etc., selection from that league.

Anasteriskdenotes a team that will be in the bowl because a league will not be able to fulfill its obligation. In some situations, other conferences have deals to provide teams if the "original" conference can't fill its spots; in those instances, the fill-in conference first fills it own bowl slots. If the fill-in conference doesn't have enough bowl-eligible teams, the bowl then is allowed to pick an at-large team that is bowl eligible.

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